Cooling Cycle ? We are headed towards and Ice Age?

Martin Armstrong is an economic forecaster with a successful track record and bases his forecasts on a very complex forecasting algorithm which uses many input parameters including solar radiance and historical data since 6000 years BCE (before common era). He has identified many cycles in human behaviour and natural phenomena and for a period of time incurred the more than attentive interest of the US government when he refused to release the computer code of his forecasting software.

On the 18th of March he posted a question “Are we headed back to an ice age” in which he noticed that when he “input the energy output of the sun and then correlated that into our database back to 6000BC” a ~300 year cycle matched up with the rise and fall of empires, nations and city states.

The climate change brigade would, I suspect, explain this correlation as being due to humanity’s behaviour. Armstrong on the other hand interprets it the other way round, that our human cycles of rises and falls of human activity are being driven by the sun’s cycles, and that we are, like it or not, at the mercy of Nature.

Perhaps. As Ice ages are also associated species mass extinctions, and extinctions are essentially geologically catastrophic events, then I doubt we headed for an ice-age per se, but perhaps a period of cooling but, then, who knows?

One thing that is clear from Armstrong’s data is that human behaviour is more likely driven, or forced as the word is these days, by the solar cycle, and hence earthly weather and climate, then humans driving climate. And it may well be that our current population explosion is but a reaction to last global climate catastrophe, one that seems to have occurred early in the first millennium during this current era. After all, species that experience episodic catastrophic reductions in population numbers compensate by having population explosions during the aftermath, to ensure sufficient numbers remain to survive the next global catastrophe.

About Louis Hissink

Retired diamond exploration geologist. I spent my professional life looking for mineral deposits, found some, and also located a number of kimberlites in NSW and Western Australia. Exploration geology is the closest one can get to practicing the scientific method, mineral exploration always being concerned with finding anomalous geophysical or geochemical data, framing a model and explanation for the anomaly and then testing it with drilling or excavation. All scientific theories are ultimately false since they invariably involved explaining something with incomplete extant knowledge. Since no one is omniscient or knows everything, so too scientific theories which are solely limited to existing knowledge. Because the future always yields new data, scientific theories must change to be compatible with the new data. Thus a true scientist is never in love with any particular theory, always knowing that when the facts change, so too must he/she change their minds.
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4 Responses to Cooling Cycle ? We are headed towards and Ice Age?

  1. PeterMG says:

    I think that looking at patterns is a good way of seeing if the past can help with predicting the future. And perhaps as little as 5 years ago I would have said his predictions had some merit.

    Today I’m not so sure, not because Martin Armstrong’s methodology or thinking is wrong, but because I don’t think we have a clue about past timelines beyond about 1200 years, perhaps even much less than that. So could it be rubbish in rubbish out.

    Even our ice ages don’t make sense to me anymore from a settled science point of view and our scientific research is still hampered by too much religious type thinking. Overall this is worrying because people do good work based on data they assume to be correct. Is it right to be critical of them, for this, at what point do you say I can’t check everything and have to accept something even if it wrong.

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    • I’m not sure that Armstrong’s ‘cycles’ are real because if you revise history in terms of Heinsohn’s hypotheses, i.e. 1st millennium CE is only some 300 years long, with 700 phantom years, plus his reconstruction of ancient middle east history, then Armstrong’s dating of the fall of civilisations etc becomes problematic.

      I am also guessing that history as we have received it, may not have been fabricated sense strict, but that the compilers of this history, always the governing elite, would have a, perhaps unwitting, tendency to fabricate their civilisation’s history, compared to others. It was what they believed to be true, and hence by consensus that belief evolved into fact.

      I’ve also started wondering whether there is a pervasive sense of circular reasoning going on as well. Take the thesis of the 700 phantom years identified by Heinsohn. If correct and the end of the Roman Empire was a natural catastrophe, the comet of Justinian, then the existence of displaced peoples, the famines and destruction would have had roaming bands of people searching for food, or taking advantage of the destruction purely to survive. It is interesting that, at least according to Shlomo Sand, or was it Israel Shahak, that the Jews did not write anything between 1st century AD and 11th century AD (I need to cite this) . It is interesting the appearance of Islam also occurred during that chronological hiatus. In one of his historical narratives, Immanuel Velikovsky stated that both Muslims and Jews were originally Venus Worshippers (Comet of Justinian?; comet of Julian at an earlier period?). The British Admiralty sent Capt. James Cook on a task to survey the transit of Venus during the 17th century, and it was only 200 years before that the Vatican enforced the adoption of the Gregorian Calendar, ostensibly because the timing of Easter was out by some 10 days, but also that the start of the year was changed from 1st of April to 1st of January. Odd change of ‘starting’ official chronology. And the new religion of Christianity would have interpreted those days of the Justinian comet as the ending times or the millennium, once the cometary threat waned and order was being restored, and thus the arrival of the medieval period from the far more elusive middle ages which may now not to have happened, but thought to have happened because the literate survivors, if any, would have assumed they were now at 1000 AD as foretold by their faith. So the 700 phantom years were, imaginatively filled in historically, which then had to be linked in to the earlier periods, and a fabricated cyclicity imposed on history.

      And at was at this time that Copernicus started voicing his opinion that the earth orbited the sun; this leads me to wonder whether prior to Copernicus’ revelation the solar system was configured differently. If so, then astronomical retrocalculation, becomes very problematical and one wonders then whether Armstrong’s identified cycles based on received history is but the latest Aristotellian ‘cycles’ or epicycles.

      To make matters even more interesting, one could take more notice of the various aboriginal stories globally – There was a general collapse of the circumpacific civilisations described by Jared Diamond, around this general time, but the archaeologists become very nitpicky because of the false precision of carbon dating and the historical assumptions those dating theories are based on – perhaps a fabricated middle age history leading to all sorts of specious cycles in tree rings etc. And ice core dating is not like tree ring dating either, but inferred from oxygen isotope fluctuations measured from the core. I sense a serious case of circular reasoning going on here, so little wonder that the climate models are not panning out – apart from the basic theory being bonkers.

      At present I am reading James Maxlow’s expanding earth hypothesis and I think he has it right but in a thoroughly English, uniformitarian’s way based on the standard paradigm geology is shackled with. The next task is to relate human history of catastrophes with the geological record because if Heinsohn’s thesis is correct, then the Roman period was terminated by sediments of the Pleistocene age since Roman aqueducts in the Rhine valley brown coal mines have been found under these deposits. The conventional explanation is that the Romans put their aqueducts underground to minimise evaporation and freezing of the water in the aqueducts. My guess is that the Roman period was much warmer, and that maybe the earth was in a slightly different alignment wrt its solar system position, and that the warm Roman period was ended by the encounter of the earth and the Comet of Justinian, or Venus, which caused a global catastrophe, caused the latest pulse of earth expansion, and which caused the earth to careen into a new axis of figure, putting latitudes that were in temperate climates into arctic. This suggests the Roman period might have been closer to an equatorial latitude, hence the ‘warm’ Roman period, but now the ruins are found in colder climates and it would be logical for the archaeologists to explain the buried aqueducts they way the do, because they are assuming that the earth’s axis of figure or spin has been constant since the beginning of time.

      And this leads to explaining past climates as interpreted from the geological stratigraphy, but if the earth has careened historically, then our dating system is, as a consequence, also bonkers and meaningless. We can rank civilisations in terms of relative occurrence, but we surely cannot perform numerical retrocalculations because the assumption of an immovable earth around it’s axis of spin and orbit around the sun is not fixed. Shades of Velikovsky! But if that is what the data imply, so be it. After all, all scientific theories are provisional and subject to change when the data insist.

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      • tempestnut says:

        Hi Louis when you posted this reply the other day you sent my head into a spin. I have been following up on your comment and all I can say is it gets more interesting and exciting every day. Keep on prodding and posting, my grey cells have not had so much fun for a long time, something my work can’t do these days.

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  2. fabio says:

    Fomenko ?

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