Climate Prophesy

The scientific method is restricted to testing explanations using extant ideas (Laws, Principles). In a limited sense the scientific method involves the prediction of the future because the act of observing during which an anomaly is identified which needs testing are all future activities occurring in series culminating in either a yes/no result. The important thing to understand is that the anomaly is being caused by a hidden phenomenon in the here and now. So a geophysical gravity anomaly, for example, cannot be explained by the invocation of a fantasy involving UFO’s underground, but must limit its solution to physically real, existing objects that already exist. Clearly a thing that does not exist cannot produce a measureable anomaly in the here and now!

H/T Pat Michaels 2015

But not so the physical phenomenon of ‘Global Warming’ where it has not been observed in the first place but is believed to happen in the future as shown in the accompanying graph.

Notice that the red bold-line represents the future since it is the average of computer models forecasting global temperature. The blue and green data plots are the balloon and satellite data-sets that are essentially ‘observations’ in the here and now.

Departure from forecast started during 1979 and became blatantly obvious after 1995. The forecast has thus been resoundingly falsified. Is this a scientific falsification?

No, because science is only able to deal with existing phenomena so the failure of the climate modelling is actually the failure of technologically sophisticated prophesy and no different to the widely held belief of the second coming, messiah etc where a final armaggedon will wipe out the unfaithful leaving only the true believers as survivors.

The Climate Change meme is a religion no different to the existing world’s religions and dressed up in a technologically sophisticated lexicon.

Update: The problem is that much of science has become religious. This is to be expected since Western Civilisation is fundamentally religious and observes the Judaen-Christian faiths despite the dominance of the progressive secular humanists in academia and our government bureaucracies. I don’t have a dog in that fight.

About Louis Hissink

Retired diamond exploration geologist. I spent my professional life looking for mineral deposits, found some, and also located a number of kimberlites in NSW and Western Australia. Exploration geology is the closest one can get to practicing the scientific method, mineral exploration always being concerned with finding anomalous geophysical or geochemical data, framing a model and explanation for the anomaly and then testing it with drilling or excavation. All scientific theories are ultimately false since they invariably involved explaining something with incomplete extant knowledge. Since no one is omniscient or knows everything, so too scientific theories which are solely limited to existing knowledge. Because the future always yields new data, scientific theories must change to be compatible with the new data. Thus a true scientist is never in love with any particular theory, always knowing that when the facts change, so too must he/she change their minds.
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